Analysis on the Spatial-temporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Urban Land Price in Kunming City, Southwest of China

Abstract

With the acceleration of urbanization, the distribution of land prices in many cities around the world has undergone rapid changes. It is necessary to simulate the evolution of urban land prices and analyze the change in driving factors. Choosing Kunming City as a case study, this study highlights a dynamic analysis process of land price distribution and its driving factors between 2008 and 2018 using variogram, Kriging valuation and GeoDetector. The results show that the distribution of residential and commercial land prices in Kunming is single-center, and that the center of gravity of high-value areas has shifted to the west. The spatial regularity of land price has weakened. The driving factors of land price include: floor area ratio, distance to the central business district, and distance to the nearest: subway station, public school, hospital, and park. The impact of well-known general hospitals on land prices has increased significantly, while the impact of other factors has declined. Influenced by school enrollment policies and the transformation of the business district, the impact of public primary schools on land prices has remained high, while the impact of public secondary schools has weakened.